Skip to main content

Asian currency bears retreat as the outlook for inflation improves.

 

According to a fortnightly poll of 12 analysts, short positions on all emerging Asian currencies fell, with bets on China's yuan at their lowest since late April.

Asian currency bears retreat as the outlook for inflation improves.


Short positions in the Philippine peso, Singapore dollar, and Indonesian rupiah all hit multi-month lows.


An unchanged July inflation print in the United States, the first notable sign of relief after years of rising prices, also helped boost sentiment in the region.


Short bets on the Thai baht fell to their lowest level since early June after the Bank of Thailand (BoT) raised its interest rate by 25 basis points on Wednesday, resuming its tightening cycle after trailing regional peers.



Thailand, whose economy is heavily reliant on tourism, has begun to show signs of a gradual economic recovery as tourists return, allowing the BoT to adjust its monetary policy.


Analysts widely anticipate that the BoT will maintain gradual policy normalisation throughout the rest of the year.


The baht, one of the least shorted currencies in the poll, appears to be on the mend, having gained nearly 4% since the beginning of the month.

.net/YwotbKdP4sVunJGfdhmgww/e8f260a6-84bf-4222-a093-e1ef14e44c00/

In the first seven months of the year, the currency fell by 10.2%.


The majority of poll responses came in after the Thai central bank announced the rate increase.


The Indonesian rupiah was also among the least shorted currencies, despite the fact that the country's economy is on track for recovery, but rising inflation and global recession risks have prompted calls for Bank Indonesia (BI) to raise interest rates.


Indonesia, the largest economy in Southeast Asia, is one of the region's last to maintain its pandemic-era loose monetary policy.


Citi and OCBC analysts predict that BI will raise its benchmark seven-day reverse repurchase rate in a meeting later this month, with Citi expecting a 25 basis point increase.


Maybank and ANZ, on the other hand, do not see the central bank rushing to tighten.


Short bets on the Indian rupee, South Korean won, and Taiwan dollar fell to their lowest levels since April 21.


The Asian currency positioning poll examines analysts' and fund managers' perceptions of the current market positions of nine Asian emerging market currencies: the Chinese yuan, South Korean won, Singapore dollar, Indonesian rupiah, Taiwan dollar, Indian rupee, Philippine peso, Malaysian ringgit, and Thai baht.


On a scale of -3 to +3, the poll uses estimates of net long or short positions. A plus 3 score indicates that the market is significantly long on US dollars.


Positions held through non-deliverable forwards are included in the figures (NDFs)

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

Futures fall after key averages open lower.

Stock futures dipped Tuesday morning after the BOJ widened its yield target range. Dow futures fell 236 points (0.72%). S&P 500 futures lost 0.86 and 1.05 percent. The Dow fell 162 points, or 0.5%, on Monday. S&P 500 declined 0.9% and Nasdaq Composite lost 1.5%. Stocks are set to conclude the month and year in the red, and investors' dreams for a Santa Claus bounce are evaporating. No Santa yet. Louis Navellier, founder of Navellier & Associates, remarked, "buckle up." "One hopes the awful news is over. No Fed moves until February. We're not gapping down but not recouping last week's losses." Investors feared the Fed may cause a recession. The central bank boosted its benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points last week and said the terminal rate might reach 5.1%. The European Central Bank raised rates and forecast future hikes last week, further pressuring traders. Over 90% of central banks raised interest rates this year, a (largely) global...

These 5 Talents Will Give You a Disproportionate Advantage

More than 21 million job advertisements from around the world were evaluated by learning firm and training program supplier Pearson. It discovered five "power abilities" that are currently driving both the global economy and individual careers. The abilities included in Pearson's Skills Outlook are not technical. Instead, the skills that are most in demand are teamwork, leadership, customer focus, and communication. Pearson's predictive AI modeling engine predicts that some of these abilities will still be in demand in 2026. The findings show that teamwork and customer focus will still be in high demand. But other soft skills like self-learning, achievement focus, and cultural and social intelligence are joining them as well. "Swift investment is required, as both businesses and employees need a solid foundation of human capabilities to succeed. Non-technical skills, such as the capacity to learn and cultural and social intelligence, are becoming increasingly cru...

The dollar makes slight gains while investors mull over the outlook for interest rates and the economy.

There will be a multitude of significant decisions made by central banks the following week, including those made by the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of England. The most important concern for traders and investors is whether or not inflation has hit its maximum level, which would provide policymakers greater leeway to implement interest rate hikes of a more moderate nature over the next few months. The monthly consumer inflation reading for the United States is also due the following week; it will be released on December 13, one day before the Fed's policy meeting on that day, and it may play a vital role in determining longer-term expectations for monetary policy. According to Adam Cole, a currency analyst at RBC, "U.S. CPI is the one data release that seems to really important for broader dollar direction at the moment," and "until we have those central bank meetings and one key monthly U.S. data release, not a great deal is occurring....